Almost 60% Of Canadian Markets Saw House Prices Lag In October

The resale market is “losing momentum” due not only to rising interest rates, but exacerbated affordability problems and a “less buoyant” job market.

Last month, Canadian home prices encountered a setback due to increased interest rates, marking the first decline in five months according to the latest Teranet-National Bank Composite House Price Index.

The index, which monitors home prices across 11 CMAs based on observed or registered sales at least twice, experienced a 0.4% drop on a seasonally adjusted basis between September and October. Before seasonal adjustments, there was a 1% slip in September (following a 1.3% decrease the month before), signifying the second consecutive monthly decline.

Teranet and National Bank attribute these declines to a broader slowdown in the resale market. They point to rising interest rates, worsened affordability concerns, and a less vibrant job market as key factors contributing to this shift.

Market conditions have relaxed nationwide, resulting in an increase in the months of inventory to 4.1 in October. Although this level mirrors pre-pandemic figures, it remains lower than the historical norm, according to a press release accompanying October’s report.

While the composite index presents a weighted average of observed or registered home prices in various Canadian cities, specifically Victoria, Vancouver, Calgary, Edmonton, Winnipeg, Hamilton, Toronto, Ottawa-Gatineau, Montreal, Quebec City, and Halifax, Teranet and National Bank track prices in a total of 31 Canadian cities. Of these, 58% experienced some degree of softening in home prices.

Toronto (-1.6%), Edmonton (-1.2%), Vancouver (-1.1%), Ottawa-Gatineau (-1.1%), Saint John (-5.3%), Trois-Rivières (-3.3%), and London (-2.5%) saw month-over-month declines in home prices, whereas Montreal (+3.7%), Halifax (+1.1%), Winnipeg (+1.0%), Moncton (+4.6%), Kingston (+3.8%), and Peterborough (+2.6%) recorded increases.

The press release anticipates further price declines in the upcoming months, citing persistently high interest rates and a less favorable economic context as challenges for the sector, despite the historical demographic growth.

On a year-over-year basis, the index showed a 2.8% increase last month. This rise was attributed to gains in Halifax (+12.5%), Victoria (+6.5%), Quebec City (+6.3%), Moncton (13%), and Sherbrooke (9.4%). Conversely, Edmonton (-3.6%), Ottawa-Gatineau (-0.5%), London (-2.1%), and Barrie (-0.9%) experienced declines in home prices compared to the previous year.

Written by Realtor Sean Findlay