Toronto & GTA Real Estate Market Update

June 2026 Data | Report Prepared by Black Wall Street Canada July 2026 Source: Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB) Market Watch, June 2026

Executive Summary

The Greater Toronto Area (GTA) housing market continued its recovery in June 2026, marked by a strong rebound in sales activity even as prices remained below year-ago levels. Home sales rose nearly 10% year-over-year while new listings and active inventory both contracted sharply, tightening market conditions heading into the second half of the year. Prices are still adjusting downward on an annual basis, but the pace of decline has been narrowing month over month, suggesting the market may be approaching a turning point.

Key Takeaways:

• Sales activity is up double digits year-over-year, the strongest June in several years
• Inventory is shrinking faster than demand is rising — a classic setup for price stabilization
• Condos remain the softest, most buyer-friendly segment; detached homes are leading the recovery
• Borrowing costs have held steady, giving buyers more confidence to re-enter the market

Market Overview — June 2026 vs. June 2025

Sales reached their highest June total in recent years, up 2.8% from May 2026 alone. Meanwhile, new listings fell for the fourth consecutive month on a year-over-year basis, and active listings dropped even faster — a sign that available supply is being absorbed more quickly than it’s being replenished.

The MLS® HPI Composite Benchmark, which strips out shifts in the mix of homes sold, eased just 0.6% month-over-month but remains the more reliable gauge of underlying price direction. Its 5.4% annual decline, while still negative, has been narrowing steadily since the start of 2026.

Price Trends by Property Type

Detached homes are leading the market back toward balance, with the smallest year-over-year price gap of any major segment and a 9.1% jump in sales volume.

Condo apartments remain the clear outlier — prices are down roughly 9-10% from a year ago, the steepest decline of any category, even though condo sales volume grew fastest of all segments (+14.3% YoY). This combination of falling prices and rising demand suggests the segment may be closer to bottoming out than any other part of the market, and it currently offers the most negotiating room for buyers.

Regional Highlights

• 416 (City of Toronto): Condo prices are nearly back to late-2019 levels, and for the first time in 16 years, Toronto condos are now more affordable than Montreal’s relative to local incomes.
• 905 (Suburban GTA): Detached and freehold demand remains concentrated here due to relative affordability versus the core.
• Mississauga (Peel): 592 sales, average price around $1.19 million — strong demand across a mix of detached, townhome, and condo product.
• Brampton (Peel): 518 sales, average price around $966,000 — one of the more affordable large markets in the GTA, still under the $1M mark.
• Vaughan (York): 524 sales, average price around $1.33 million, among the stronger performers in York Region.
• Toronto West (e.g., High Park, Swansea): Sale-to-list ratios near 100% in tightly supplied, established neighbourhoods.

Affordability & Economic Backdrop

• Bank of Canada overnight rate: ~2.3%
• Prime rate: 4.5% (unchanged in recent months, giving buyers more rate certainty)
• Toronto unemployment rate: elevated relative to a year ago, a headwind for buyer confidence
• Affordability: Single-detached ownership costs still consume more than 80% of a typical Toronto household’s pre-tax income — among the least affordable in the country. Condo affordability, by contrast, has improved substantially amid falling prices.
• Policy developments: Ontario has committed additional funding (on top of federal-provincial programs) to help municipalities reduce development charges, which TRREB estimates can add up to 20% to the cost of a new home. This is aimed at boosting future supply rather than moving resale prices today.
• Immigration: Federal efforts to slow immigration growth are a watch item for demand, particularly in entry-level condos, which have historically absorbed a large share of newcomers.

Outlook

TRREB’s leadership has characterized 2026 as “a year of two halves,” with a slow first quarter giving way to a marked improvement in sales through the spring and into summer. If new listings and active inventory continue tightening through the second half of the year, industry officials expect selling prices could stabilize near 2025 levels and potentially post modest gains — a shift that would likely draw more buyers off the sidelines.

For now, the market sits in a transitional phase: sales have recovered well ahead of prices, buyers still have room to negotiate (especially on condos), and well-priced freehold listings are moving quickly and closer to asking price.

Thinking About Buying or Selling?

Sources

• Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB), Market Watch — June 2026
• TRREB News Release, “Market Gains Traction with Strong Home Sales in June and First Half of the Year,” July 3, 2026
• WOWA.ca, Toronto Housing Market Update, July 3, 2026
• The Canadian Press, July 3, 2026
• Zoocasa, “TRREB June Sales Jump 9.4%,” July 2026

This report is for general informational purposes only and does not constitute investment, legal, or financial advice. Figures reflect GTA-wide averages and may vary significantly by neighbourhood and property type. Consult a licensed real estate professional for guidance specific to your situation.